"that day about 3,000 persons were added".

Last Sunday night, I had the joy of baptising three teenagers, using a good deal of water - well, I simply cannot imagine the scene if there had been 3,000 to baptise in Belvoir last Sunday! But the interesting thing is that Luke notes the numbers down, so that we can check back and have a fairly accurate record. Like those who fill in preacher's books, he may have been one or two under or (more likely) one or two over, so, to keep it right, he says about 3000 people.

During the course of this year, we in the Diocese of Down and Dromore have been big into numbers. For those of you who were able to get a ticket (and I know tickets were like gold dust) 2000 for 2000 was, believe an occasion you will never forget. It had a unifying effect on those who were present, It launched the 'Think Again' Strategy with a bang, and the response all over was enormously encouraging. Everyone went away on 29 November with particular memories. Two at our ecumenical guests told me they were 'gob smacked' to see such on event in the Church of Ireland, and even added "If that's what the Church of Ireland is like, you can sign me up". (I won't tell you what denominations they represented!).

Numbers are important, and 2000 for 2000 was a big lesson for me that the major gathering, the large rally, and even the big mission is not dead, but that people who know what it is to worship in intimate groups of 10, and more 'normal' church congregations of 100's also need that little glimpse of heaven which comes when we worship in thousands, preparing ourselves for the multitude which no human being can number around the throne of God. One of the little insights which came to me on that Monday night, as I looked out over the audience, was the realisation that this vast company of 2000+ was only about two per cent of the people in the Diocese of Down and Dromore who claim to belong to the Church of Ireland.

But we have been looking at other numbers as well. Two projects have been undertaken in the past year as part of the under girding of 'Think Again' to help us see what the true facts are about numbers in this diocese.

(One involved comparing the numbers attending morning and evening services each decade between 1965 and 1995. The other involved a census by age and gender on three normal Sundays in November 1999.)

Much of my Presidential Address this year will be a walk through these figures with you, giving some personal comments and interpretations, simply to start the ball of discussion rolling. You will see a sheet with the statistics with the pile of paper on your seats.

Some key points (presuming my calculation is correct):

(a) Our total main morning and evening Sunday congregations have reduced by 17.2% in the period 1965-1995.

(b) According to the figures returned to the Diocesan Office, it would appear that our total main morning congregations have gone down by only 6% - though I want to examine this more closely to ensure that the figures are correct.

(c) Our total main evening congregations have gone down by 40.6%.

These are fascinating figures. My guess would be that many of those who were "twicers" in 1965 have become "oncers", which accounts for some of the vast reduction in Evening Congregations. In our November 1999 Census, on a three-normal-Sunday period, the total evening congregations in the Diocese were 2692 per Sunday, and if that were divided between 80 parishes, it gives an average of only 34 people. Sunday evening services must be a major item on our agenda as we look at the Outreach, Young People and Renewal strands of our 'Think Again' project. We must ask some basic questions, such as: "Who are they aimed at?" "Are we simply repeating the same style and content as in the morning? and why?" "How can Sunday evening events meet the need of our present situation?" "Where are Sunday evening services working well, and why?"; and even 'Do we eventually accept that as evening congregations have become smaller, the inclination has been to make the services shorter and to simply accept that very little could be done to reverse the trend.' My own view would be that Sunday evenings are a God-given opportunity to do something new, fresh and different on an evening of the week which is not usually booked up by other things, and I would like the 'Think Again' team to help such new forms of worship, teaching and fellowship to be explored in the coming years. I have to confess that I have started evening services from scratch in two places in which I have ministered and they have been pivotal to renewal, and I want to see this present trend well and truly reversed under God, here in Down and Dromore, and will work with parishes in finding appropriate ways forward.

The second thing I would wish to say is that the reduction in our Morning Services is amazingly small, in comparison with other churches on these Islands. To be honest, I couldn't believe it at first - 6.3%. I was expecting 15/20%. In other words, there has been hardly any meaningful decline at all in morning numbers. But the thing which surprised me even more (indeed when I saw the print-out from the computer for the first time, I declared it to be definitely wrong!) was that the numbers actually increased between 1975 and 1985, so that there were even more people in church in 1985 than 20 years earlier. Now, I imagine you may have many answers as to why that would be the case. Let me suggest three possible reasons:

1. There could have been a degree of population movement into Down and Dromore during the height of the troubles, but I don't think this should be overestimated.
2. There may have been more Sunday School children coming to church, especially with Family Services and Sunday Schools being during the morning service, rather than earlier in the morning or in mid-afternoon.
3. And I throw this out without any 'inside' knowledge. - Could it be that part of the growth of that decade was the result of the Diocesan Campaign of Renewal? Certainly I have observed that many ordinands came forward after the Renewal Campaign, and it wouldn't surprise me if congregations were encouraged by it, and experienced a measure of real growth.

But what these figures tell us for now is that we are in a much better position at the start of the 'Think Again' strategy than in many other parts of the Western Church to halt and reverse decline. We have not, as a Church, lost touch with many of our people - they are there in our pews on Sunday mornings - twelve to thirteen thousand in an ordinary week, and it must be ensured that they experience vital, living, life-changing worship. Might I also plead with all my heart that we continue to see regular weekly worship on the Lord's Day as our duty and joy, and do not lapse, as so much of the Church of England has done, into a fortnightly, monthly, or occasional model of church attendance.

The other figures are fascinating too:

1. Baptisms: Baptisms have reduced by precisely 50%. This may be considered as either 'bad news' or 'good news' dependent on your starting points. My own analysis is this:

   "Granny has died". You remember what granny used to say, don't you? "You should have the wean done". Well, granny is longer there to say it, so that many in the present generation do not even think about baptism. Then, nowadays, thankfully, the vast majority of baptisms are part of public worship, and that means that those who might have come quietly on a Sunday afternoon or Wednesday evening are more nervous about coming. So, it may mean that the level of commitment in those asking for baptisms is generally higher. But I have a sneaking suspicion that it also points up the way in which our church is becoming increasingly middle-class. When I was born in the fifties, my mother had grown up in the protestant working-class heartland of Sandy Row - largely Church of Ireland. The same was true of major tracts of inner-city Belfast, and not least East Belfast. We still have the church buildings to prove it. Large numbers of Baptisms took place in those kinds of areas, where parents were distanced from the church, but still knew they 'belonged' to the Church of Ireland. A great deal of that has gone.

   In the old Institution Service, the following words used to be said to the new rector:

   "be thou diligent in seeking out any unbaptised
   persons in the parish and bring them to the holy
   sacrament of baptism'.

   Even 30 years ago, the obvious meaning of that was that we looked for lax parents. Now, there are many, many people who are totally unchurched, even in a diocese like this, I hope we will use every means possible to evangelise them. As Bishop Dan Herzog said at his Convention in Albany Diocese (where many of the same issues are being faced)- the time has past when we sit back and wait for Episcopalians to come to town". We must use courses like Alpha (especially this autumn with the major publicity campaign), as part of our Outreach strand, and every other outreach opportunity. Another thought by Bishop Dan, as Albany Diocese was challenged to double its numbers of worshippers over five years, was the 3:1:1 model - every three years each one believer brings one new person to faith - what a challenge to us, and whet a difference it would make. I wonder when we would have the courage to take on such a challenge. My advice is 'Carpe Diem- seize the day!'

2. Communicants are up 42%. 1 wouldn't get overly-excited about that figure. Yes, it may imply that the committed are more committed, but it may also simply be that the number of communion services has increased over that 30 year period. However, that is encouraging and my deep wish and desire would be that we would increasingly become a church which values the Holy Communion as the central and normative act of worship on the Lord's Day.

   Again, if I may reflect on my recent experience in Albany Diocese, it is only in going to other parts of the Anglican Communion, that we realise how unusual our patterns of worship can be in the Church of Ireland. Morning Prayer was, of course, never intended to stand on its own as the main Sunday Service. It was essentially daily prayer. That central place was reserved for the Holy Communion, where the Lord's People meet in the Lord's House on the Lord's Day at the Lord's Table. So the slight increase in communicants encourages me, but I would that it were much higher still.

3. Christmas Attendances: Up by almost 30%, due partly to midnight services. This means that Christmas must be a key time for outreach and pre-evangelism. It is a time above all others, when people (up from 14,000 to 18,000 on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day alone) who do not usually go to church come with an open spirit. The opportunities presented to us, especially in the couple of weeks before Christmas each year are colossal. We must ensure that those who come find a warmth and reality which draws them back, and that we have ways of following up and developing this Christmas openness which is stronger than ever at the moment in our church.

There are two areas which we could not begin to assess from the 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995 returns, but were able to gauge in our 1999 November census - Age and Sex. I think it only right to add them to the pot as we paint a picture of our Diocese at this stage, and the picture is relatively clear. On age, in broad-brush terms, 60% of our congregations are over 40 years of age. Oddly enough, the Church of England ratio is exactly the same - in 1998 60% were over the age of 40.

But the frightening statistic for us is the 18-30 age group. For every year in that age range there are 77 in church in this diocese, whereas with 12-14's or 60+ there are more than three times as many for each year of age. Yes, there is a drop off at around 14/15, but the most serious gap (that's perhaps why we call it 'the Missing Link') is the young adults of 18-30, and I am so relieved that we have a Diocesan programme up and running to build up and develop that age group, which often find themselves isolated with only one or two others of the same age range in the same parish. Of course, we know that part of the picture here has been the numbers of students leaving Northern Ireland (13-15% of our total school leavers) and the fact that only 25-30% return.

Please God, as we become more settled, and as, hopefully, the Assembly and other structures are established and working, this province will again become a place where our 18-30's want to be with a sense of hope, vision and future. To be prepared for that, we need to make very clear and intentional decisions at local level to create a church environment where 18-30s can feel at home, worship in a meaningful way, have their spiritual needs addressed and exercise their gifts, abilities and leadership skills for the sake of generations yet to come.

On gender 59% of our total congregations are female, 41% male. This becomes very marked at the upper end of the age spectrum, because women seem to live longer and remain healthier than men! In England, only 36% of congregations are male, so we are a little bit more balanced, but we cannot exactly sit back and rest on our laurels!

That is a picture then, of the Diocese of Down and Dromore as it is at this point in time. These are the facts - some encouraging and some discouraging. And it is this church, this motley crew of people, with all our quirks, failings, successes and imbalances that we believe God wants to reach out and bless. It is not that we want to 'go it alone' in some 'Sinn Fein' kind of attitude. Having Gary Mason as our preacher from the Methodist East Belfast Mission, and then on Sunday at the ordination of deacons, Ken Wilson the former president of the Methodist Church, is a reminder that we want to work as closely as possibly alongside others who have the Gospel in their veins and the good of the whole church in their hearts. There will be a resolution later about the Methodist/Church of Ireland Covenant encouraging further progress on that, and I ask you to give it great support at diocesan and parochial levels.

What we long for, more than anything else, is that the Pentecostal Holy Spirit would take us all and transform us, as he did those slightly-tired, slightly-despondent and slightly-inward looking early Christians. That is what 'Think Again' is about. It is a way and means for the whole diocese to be renewed as each individual parish is renewed. You will he thrilled to know that the team is now fully and formally in place, with

Andrew Brannigan us Youth Development Officer
Charles Leeke as Reconciliation Development Officer
Nigel Parker as Outreach Development Officer
and of course Mary Colas as Secretary/Administrator.

But one big announcement today is that we have just appointed the Director of the 'Think Again' Programme. As you know, we were very fortunate and blessed to have David Chillingworth seconded from Seagoe Parish for nine months to set up the 'Think Again' programme. Where we would be without him, I do not know. He has worked with vision and energy and his particular ability to set up healthy and good structures so that the programme will run efficiently and well. Thank you David.

But, in handing David back unscathed to Seagoe - it is also a great joy to announce that the 'Think Again' Director is Norman Jardine, at present Rector of Willowfield. Norman comes with a heart for every aspect of this Strategy and a proven track record . He is on the Diocesan Bridge Building Committee and has been for some time. He is invlolved in outreach, young people and renewal in what is not necessarily the easiest part of the diocese. I know you will receive this news with great pleasure.

This team is the means by which the diocese wishes to support and encourage each and every parish here. Make use of their skills and expertise, their energy and commitment and let's see together the wonderful things which God can do in his church in our day, because there is always resurrection hope in Jesus Christ. There was a lovely quote from G K Chesterton in a parish magazine in this diocese which I received last week, which somehow sums up my thoughts as we read these statistics in the context of a very weak Western church:

'Five times in the history of Europe the church has appeared to go to the dogs, and each time it was the dog that died!'

The time will come when succeeding generations will research the figures for 2000-2005. My prayer is that they will see real, specific, deep growth - the kind that is seen in numbers, and the kind which ensures that the church is so healthy that it cannot but grow.

Celebrations: Two important 25th celebrations took place in this past year. First of all, as mentioned in the Diocesan Council Report, Neill Wilson celebrated 25 years as Diocesan Secretary. We celebrated by presenting Neill with a gold watch as a memento of that occasion, and a symbol of our appreciation,

Then on St Columba's Day, 9 June, our primate and much-beloved former Bishop of Down and Dromore, Robin Eames, celebrated 25 years as a bishop in the Church of God. I want to add our congratulations to the many which have been conveyed, and to thank him for his patience and peacemaking in our church during the most troubled and difficult times.

If I might add one more celebration. Most of us, when we retire, have our parish or diocese to say farewell. There is someone among us who will be retiring from active ministry next month who does not - that is, Cecil Kerr. Cecil was prepared to step out in the early seventies in an act of total faith, because of God's call, and set up the Christian Renewal Centre. Rostrevor has become almost synonymous with his name. He has been honoured in many ways over the years, but it would be wrong for this Synod to pass without thanking him for a unique and much-appreciated contribution to what is our first-declared aim in this diocese - Reconciliation. Thank you Cecil and Myrtle, and may God richly bless you in a well-deserved retirement.

It would not be possible to mention all the names of those who have announced their retirements over the past year. But may I simply say to all a big 'thank you' from the diocese for many years of faithful and devoted ministry. We also welcome those who are new into the diocese since our last Synod, and congratulate all who, especially at this time of the year are celebrating major anniversaries of their ordinations.

We also offer our prayers for all those who have experienced bereavement since last year, and remember specially the following who was a member of the Diocesan Synod;

Mr Norris Hughes of Magheradroll

We send our good wishes, as always at this time, to former bishops of Down and Dromore, Archbishop Robin Eames and Bishop Gordon McMullan along with their wives and families.

And this is also a very personal opportunity for me to say thank you to my two archdeacons, Gregor McCamley and Ken Good, who are the best archdeacons imaginable. Also my secretary Betty McLaughlin, without whose experience, wisdom and proficiency, I would often be in difficulties; to the diocesan office staff (and may I say how glad we are to welcome Diana Bell to the downstairs lobby). They are always helpful and well organised, just like today! To Brenda Sheil for acting as my Assessor. And finally to David and Hilary McClay, the Select Vestry and the ladies of Christ Church Kilkeel, for all they have done for us today.

My day in Kilkeel last year for the Diocesan Synod began in a fishing boat. This year, in the Mountains of Mourne, at a little hall in Carginagh, where this parish has set up a little church plant. After only a year, there is a regular Sunday morning congregation of 70+ and it is a church with more men than women. Many of these people would not have been in church this time last year. The parish is also setting up a nightclub - Jim's - for young people as a drop-in centre in the middle of town. This is all a sign and symbol of what can be as God grows his church in this beloved Diocese of Dawn and Dromore.